Climate forecasting for energy: online workshop: 4 Dec 2020

Workshop details and call for presentations

Friday 4 December 2020 10:00 CET +0100

The S2S4E project and the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (openmod) are running a joint one‑day workshop on improving the uptake and use of subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in energy system models and allied decision-making.

S2S4E is the Climate Services for Clean Energy project, funded under Horizon 2020.

Subseasonal to seasonal climate forecasts look forward weeks to months and have the potential to support better management of weather-related risk amid the growth of renewable energy. Examples of possible applications include: maintenance scheduling, energy trading, security of supply estimation, and storage management. Effective use of S2S forecasts for energy can help to reduce risk, enhance profitability, and accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

One aim of the workshop is to improve connections between the energy modeling and climate forecasting communities. To date there has been relatively little overlap. Energy system modelers, in particular, are encouraged to propose 8 minute lightning talks that describe their use of climate information or alternatively outline ways in which climate scientists might better package such information to meet modeling needs. To underscore that last point: agenda setting by articulating currently unmet requirements and use‑cases is sought.

Several of the presentations from climate scientists will explain current and future capabilities as well as indicate emerging roles for S2S climate forecast information. Established public climate databases will also be reviewed.

Registration and inquiries

Registration is required. Please see the link above (also in the PDF flier) for details.

For inquiries, please contact Robbie Morrison @robbie.morrison. Otherwise email me (address below) if you are not registered with this forum. If I am unable to help, I will forward your question or request to someone who can.

Outline

The following table provides an outline of the event. Please see the official flier for full details of the presentations and speakers. All timestamps are CET +0100.

Time Item Topic
S2S4E project Subseasonal and seasonal climate forecasts for energy
10:00 Welcome
10:05 Presentations Climate information and application to energy analysis
11:10 Panel discussion Supporting the use of climate forecasts in energy
11:30 Break
12:00 Presentations Research advances and emerging opportunities
13:00 Lunch break + Posters
S2S4E/openmod Joint session
14:00 Welcome
14:10 Presentations Practical use of climate data for energy analysis
15:00 Break
15:20 Presentations Energy modelers describe their use of climate information
16:20 Panel discussion
16:50 Wrap‑up
Informal
17:00 Virtual drinks + Posters
18:00 Close

Research presentations and posters from energy system modelers

The 15:20 time slot is for  six  five lightning talk presentations from energy system modelers and energy analysts. Each presentation is allotted 8 minutes followed by 2 minutes for questions.

Please describe your presentation in the posting below using the same system that was used for the openmod mini‑workshops held earlier this year. If more than  six  five proposals are received, the scientific committee will adjudicate.

In addition, posters are sought. The S2S4E project are handling the submission of titles and artwork. The posters sessions will take place using the spatial.chat platform whereby attendees can push their assigned avatars toward individual posters in order to engage with the presenter and anybody else who happens to be standing nearby. S2S4E duly advise:

Throughout the day and at the lunch break, an interactive poster session will be available. All participants are invited to share their research on the use of climate information in energy-system applications and models.

To participate with a poster, please indicate this in the event registration form. Submissions should be sent to s2s4e@bsc.es by 27 November 2020.

The call for presentations also closes on Friday 27 November 2020 at 17:00 CET +0100. PDF files should likewise be forwarded on or before Wednesday 2 December 2020 to s2s4e@bsc.es.

Contributors are encouraged to add Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licenses to their material to facilitate dissemination and reuse.

Background

Under the Paris climate agreement, governments committed to limit the global temperature rise this century to well below 2°C. Decarbonizing energy is widely seen as a major step toward in achieving this commitment, and reliance on renewable electricity generation — particularly from wind and solar — therefore continues to increase. Renewable energy production is weather-dependent and it can therefore be difficult to anticipate how much electricity will be produced at any given time in advance. Integration of renewables thus poses new challenges for the management, operation, and design of power systems. Increasingly skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts on timescales of weeks to months ahead therefore have the potential to support better management of weather-related risk amid the growth of non‑firm renewable energy.

The use of climate data in energy applications (particularly S2S forecasts) is a rapidly developing field of research and innovation, but major challenges remain due to the complexity of information involved.
This workshop therefore seeks to address this by discussing:

  • the science basis of climate forecasting
  • the use of climate data in energy modelling and decision making
  • state-of-the-art research advances in the use of climate data in energy modelling

Organizing committee

The scientific organizing committee comprises: David Brayshaw and Hannah Bloomfield (Energy Meteorology Group, University of Reading, United Kingdom), Robbie Morrison @robbie.morrison, Ekaterina Kasilova @ekatef, Alex Kies @alexkies, Anne Fouilloux, and Martin Dorenkamper (openmod), Isadora Jimenez, Albert Soret, and Andria Nicodemou (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain), and Erlend Hermansen and Jana Sillmann (Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Norway).

Beyond Europe

The start time of 10:00 CET +0100 in other parts of the world as follows:

  • Friday 04 December 2020 22:00:00 NZDT +1300
  • Friday 04 December 2020 20:00:00 AEDT +1100
  • Friday 04 December 2020 14:30:00 IST +0530 (India)
  • Friday 04 December 2020 10:00:00 CET +0100
  • Friday 04 December 2020 09:00:00 GMT +0000
  • Friday 04 December 2020 09:00:00 UTC +0000
  • Friday 04 December 2020 04:00:00 EST -0500
  • Friday 04 December 2020 02:00:00 MST -0700
  • Friday 04 December 2020 01:00:00 PST -0800
  • Thursday 03 December 2020 23:00:00 HST -1000

Researchers from outside Europe are strongly encouraged to both attend and present.

Recording permissions

The workshop will be recorded and the recordings will be made available after the event through the S2S4E channels (website, YouTube, and social media).

Participants can license their contribution under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license at the time of registration. This will permit the associated video recording to be uploaded to YouTube for a wider audience and downstream reuse. In addition, presenters can optionally license their presentations and posters under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license. This will also facilitate their dissemination and reuse.

Attendees and presenters should note that open licensing is optional.

About the openmod

The Open Energy Modelling Initiative (openmod) is a loose network of energy system modelers and energy analysts also interested in advancing open science. The openmod began with a workshop in Berlin, Germany in September 2014. Its most recent (pre‑covid) three‑day workshop, again in Berlin, attracted 190 researchers. The openmod currently has circa 700 participants on its mailing list and on its discussion forum. For more background:

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List of presentations

Lightning talk presentations for the 15:20 time slot. As indicated above, this list is provisional and will be reviewed by the scientific committee if more than  six  five proposals are submitted.

Editing instructions

To submit a talk, either add your talk details below using the edit button for this wikipost. Or alternatively email Robbie Morrison at this address with the equivalent text.

In order to edit, you will need to be registered with the forum. To register, click the sign‑up button at the top of the page, which looks like this:

Be aware that registration is subject to screening. We occasionally receive fraudulent requests and the site moderators make every effort to keep this community space as clean as possible. So please factor in some delay, possibly as much as one day.

The edit button used to edit a wikipost looks like this and is situated at the bottom right of this posting:

Formatting

Please use the format: Name. Title. Description.

See here for examples from previous events. A few presentation guidelines are available here, including advice on the optional addition of Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licenses. Descriptions should ideally be less than 200 words. We can accept a maximum of  six  five talks.

COP26 climate data hackathon brainstorm

  1. COP26 climate data hackathon. The final ten minute slot is now devoted to discussions on a climate data hackathon scheduled for early‑April 2021 or thereabouts. The hackathon is motivated by the next COP26 climate negotiations in Glasgow and is supported by the UK Met Office, Oxford University, and Reading University.

    This brainstorming session seeks input from participants regarding the format and goals of the data hackathon, who might potentially contribute, and how to make contact.

    More details by 20 November 2020.

List of presentations

  1. Paul Westermann @pwest. Building energy surrogate models that span multiple climate zones. Machine learning surrogate models are being trained on building energy simulation in- and output data. Their key advantage is their computational efficiency, which allows modellers to explore building design performance in fractions of a second. However, these surrogate models are currently bound to the specific building energy simulation model, that was used for generating the training data set. In this study, we show how we can break that boundary by using a deep convolutional neural network which can process large annual hourly weather data. This allows the surrogate model to expand over all climates and modellers can assess the impact of climate on the building energy performance rapidly.

    To showcase the use of surrogate models they span multiple climates, we host our surrogate models on the platform www.buildingenergy.ninja. The surrogate models take building design parameters and annual hourly weather data as inputs, and produce annual hourly building loads as outputs.

  2. Adriaan Hilbers @ahilbers. Efficient quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty in energy system models. Recent studies indicate that the effects of climate uncertainty in energy system models should not be ignored. For example, running the same model with different years of demand and weather data (e.g. 2018 vs. 2019) may lead to significant spreads in outputs, and picking the “wrong year” of climate data may lead users to suboptimal energy strategy. For this reason, quantifying the impact of climate uncertainty in energy system models (creating confidence or prediction intervals) allows more robust decision-making. The standard approach involves running a model multiple times using different samples of demand and weather data. However, this is infeasible in many energy settings due to limitations in data (many different samples unavailable) or computing (many expensive model runs infeasible). In this presentation, we introduce a method that runs models across shorter samples and rescales uncertainty bounds in a statistically robust way, reducing both the data and computational burden. The paper, models, data and sample code can be found here.

  3. Ekaterina Fedotova @ekatef. Climate change impacts on the energy system under the fossil fuel curse. I’ll highlight the research works assessing the climate change impacts on the Russian energy system. A series of studies has addressed the following questions:

    • integral impacts of the warming climate on the national energy system
    • evolution of the renewable energy potential under the climate change
    • possible climate change effects on the renewables integration into power systems

    It has been shown that, while rapidly warming winters result in a significant heating demand decrease, the climate change associated shift in the load patterns is likely to create additional obstacles in escaping the fossil fuel trap. A combination of the energy systems simulation with reliable climate data seems to be crucial in resolving this issue.
  4. Presenter to be determined. Open energy system modeling for climate scientists and others. A tutorial presentation on the types of models developed and used within the open energy modeling community. With perhaps some observations on the relative merits of open source projects, consortium (economic club) projects, and single institute closed source projects. (Title and abstract provisional.)

Additional resources

This posting lists some additional resources.