Energy scenarios for the wiki

scenarios

#1

Hi all,

Is there anyone interested in creating a wiki page for future energy system scenarios?
Thanks!

Tiziano


#2

Hello @Tiziano This is one of several efforts aimed at creating and assembling future energy system scenarios, within this community, by public bodies, and by others. Scenarios are probably better databased than wikied, I would suggest. The lack of open licensing (for instance by the European Commission and the IPCC) makes official and semi‑official scenarios hard for us open modelers to collect and recycle (not that you propose that exactly).

To the best of my knowledge, @ludwig.huelk is working on an energy scenario database named SzenarienDB, as part of the OEP project hosted by the Reiner Lemoine Institut (RLI) and others (Hülk et al 2017, Glauer 2018). So that is probably the first point of contact for this community in relation to structuring and storing scenarios.

The European Commission has published a set of scenarios in PDF format (Capros et al 2016). The copyright holder is unclear but probably the European Commission and there is no open license.

The IPCC has databased their SR15 scenarios (IAMC) but not under an open license (Huppmann et al 2018 × 2). I understand that getting agreement from the contributing parties on a CC‑BY‑4.0 license was not possible, despite efforts to do so.

Other threads on this server:

Finally note that some of the scenarios listed are for integrated assessment models (IAM) and some for energy system models. There needs to be some effort to harmonize these or at least explain why they should diverge, be that in terms of inputs or results or both.

While on the topic, I think it would be useful to develop “sufficiency” scenarios where people only consume what they need and perhaps also to deploy different economic processes within the models themselves, particularly for coupled CGE models and stand‑alone IAM models (Kuhnhenn 2018). HTH, R.

References

Capros, P, A De Vita, N Tasios, P Siskos, M Kannavou, A Petropoulos, S Evangelopoulou, M Zampara, D Papadopoulos, L Paroussos, K Fragiadakis, S Tsani, P Fragkos, N Kouvaritakis, L Höglund-Isaksson, W Winiwarter, P Purohit, A Gomez-Sanabria, S Frank, N Forsell, M Gusti, P Havlík, M Obersteiner, HP Witzke, and Monika Kesting (20 July 2016). EU reference scenario 2016: energy, transport and GHG emissions trends to 2050. Brussels, Belgium: European Commission.

Glauer, Martin (30 October 2018). Eine offene Plattform zur Energiesystemmodellierung: Akronym: OEP (OpenEnergy Platform) — Präsentation [An open platform for energy system modeling: acronym: OEP (OpenEnergy Platform) — Presentation] (in German). Magdeburg, Germany: Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg. Workshop held Berlin, Germany. Unlicensed.

Huppmann, Daniel, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Steven K Rose, John Weyant, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Valentina Bosetti, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Shinichiro Fujimori, David Gernaat, Arnulf Grubler, Celine Guivarch, Martin Haigh, Christian Holz, Gokul Iyer, Etsushi Kato, Kimon Keramidas, and Alban Kitous (2018). IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA. Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). doi:10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15429.

Huppmann, Daniel, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi (15 October 2018). “A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research”. Nature Climate Change. ISSN 1758-6798. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4. Paywalled.

Hülk, Ludwig, Editha Kötter, Berit Müller, and Martin Glauer (2017). The OpenEnergy Database (oedb): a database concept to improve transparency in energy system analyses — Poster. Berlin, Germany: Reiner Lemoine Institut (RLI).

IAMC (ongoing). IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA. Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC). Part of the IPCC SR15 report.

Kuhnhenn, Kai (4 December 2018). Economic growth in mitigation scenarios: a blind spot in climate science — E-paper. Berlin, Germany: Heinrich Böll Foundation.

Renewables Grid Initiative (May 2018). Enabling a renewables-based electricity system: joint conclusions from RGI’s “future scenario exchange” workshops. Berlin, Germany: The Renewables Grid Initiative (RGI).


#3

Hi Robbie,
Thank you very much for your detailed answer and the references.

I agree on that.
Would it be useful to have a wiki page that points to scenario databases or to individual scenarios (EC, IPCC, etc) as a reference resource, even if they are not fully open source? Would this be a useful addition to the wiki, alongside to the models and data pages?

Definitely a direction to investigate, maybe this paper could be of interest.

Best wishes,
Tiziano


#4

Hi @Tiziano Just briefly. Indexing is a good idea. Either here first or on the openmod wiki as you prefer. I also started a new topic on energy sufficiency and added the Wuppertal Institute article you indicated.