German economics ministry long-term and climate scenarios projects


#1

Caution: the translations are unofficial.

The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) commissioned a series of studies known collectively as the long-term and climate scenarios (Langfrist- und Klimaszenarien) projects (BMWi website). The two headline projects comprise:

  • Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany (Langfristszenarien und Strategien für den Ausbau Erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland)
  • The impact of climate protection targets and measures on the energy sector and the expansion of renewable energy (Auswirkungen der Klimaschutzziele und diesbezüglicher Maßnahmen auf den Energiesektor und den Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien)

The contracted research institutions are (BMWi 2017):

  • Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI)
  • Consentec GmbH and Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH (ifeu) with subcontractor M-Five
  • Technische Universität Wien
  • TEP Energy GmbH
  • GEF Ingenieur AG

Half the reports have been made public as indicated below. The remainder are due for release in 2018.

Research modules

The work program comprises 17 study modules and sub-modules (numbered 0 through 13 and U).
Those indicated were published on 30 August 2017 and are available for download.

Module Report Description Translation
0 Zentrale Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen Key findings and conclusions
1 Hintergrund, Szenarioarchitektur und übergeordnete Rahmenparameter Background, scenario architecture, and parameters common to all scenarios
2 Modelle und Modellverbund Models and model combinations
3 Referenzszenario und Basisszenario Reference and base scenarios
4 Geringerer Ausbau der Übertragungsnetze Limited expansion of transmission networks
5 Alternative regionale EE-Verteilung Alternative regional renewable energy distribution
6 Restriktionsarmes Szenario Restriction-poor scenario
7   Alternativer EE-Erzeugungsmix Alternative renewable energy generation mix
8   Ausbautempo EE-Strom Expansion rate for renewable generation
9   Extremwetterszenarien Extreme weather scenarios
10   95%-Szenarien 95% GHG reduction scenarios
10.a Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen Deutschlands um 95% bis 2050 Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany by 95% in 2050
10.b   95%-Szenarien 95% GHG reduction scenarios
11   Dezentrales System Decentralized system
12   Geringeres Biomassepotenzial Restricted biomass potential
13   Geringere europäische Ambitionen Low EU ambitions
U   Ökologische Evaluierung der Szenarien Ecological evaluation of the scenarios

Some comments

The studies use a set of linked and iterated models, with a European electricity model at the core. The analysis looks forward to 2050.

The domestic demand-side is modeled in considerable detail. The traffic sector is well represented, with consumer vehicle purchasing decisions and transport mode switching present.

German industry is also modeled in detail, with tens of energy intensive processes present, including steel and cement making. Future process improvements are available as potential options.

The transmission network is represented and distribution networks are characterized using population density and renewables penetration.

Non-CO2 emissions from agriculture, for instance, are included but as exogenous inputs.

The available reports cover an 80% greenhouse gas reduction in 2050 (the lower bound of current policy) which translates to an 87% reduction for the energy sector (to compensate for less tractable agricultural emissions and such). Later reports will consider a 95% GHG target (the upper bound of current policy).

The published results show limited use of non-conventional storage (power-to-X, batteries), but the transmission system is reinforced.

The results from the 95% target will be interesting for two reasons. First, consumer behavioral changes and negative emissions technologies will be included (and possibly significant). And second, a future system optimized for 80% emissions reductions is not necessarily en-route to a system optimized for 95% emissions reductions.

General references

BMWi (webpage). “Langfrist- und Klimaszenarien”. Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi). Berlin, Germany.

BMWi (30 August 2017). Projekte “Langfrist- und Klimaszenarien”: Übergreifende Einordnung: Untersuchungsgegenstand, Szenarioarchitektur und Aussagekraft der Szenarien [“Long-term and climate scenarios” projects: comprehensive classification : object of investigation, scenario architecture, and scenario validity] (in German). Berlin, Germany: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi). Six page overview.

Module references

Pfluger, Benjamim, Bernd Testeegen, and Bernd Franke (September 2017). Modul 0: Zentrale Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen: Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland [Module 0: Key findings and conclusions: Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany] (in German). Germany: Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, and ifeu.

Pfluger, Benjamim, Bernd Testeegen, and Bernd Franke (September 2017). Modul 1: Hintergrund, Szenarioarchitektur und übergeordnete Rahmenparameter: Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland [Module 1: Background, scenario architecture, and parameters common to all scenarios: Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany] (in German). Germany: Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, and ifeu.

Pfluger, Benjamim, Bernd Testeegen, and Bernd Franke (September 2017). Modul 2: Modelle und Modellverbund: Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland [Module 2: Models and model combinations: Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany] (in German). Germany: Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, and ifeu.

Pfluger, Benjamim, Bernd Testeegen, and Bernd Franke (September 2017). Modul 3: Referenzszenario und Basisszenario: Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland [Module 3: Reference and base scenarios: Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany] (in German). Germany: Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, and ifeu.

Pfluger, Benjamim, Bernd Testeegen, and Bernd Franke (September 2017). Modul 4: Geringerer Ausbau der Übertragungsnetze: Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland [Module 4: Limited expansion of transmission networks: Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany] (in German). Germany: Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, and ifeu.

Pfluger, Benjamim, Bernd Testeegen, and Bernd Franke (September 2017). Modul 5: Szenario “Alternative regionale EE-Verteilung”: Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland [Module 5: Scenario “alternative regional renewable energy distribution”: Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany] (in German). Germany: Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, and ifeu.

Pfluger, Benjamim, Bernd Testeegen, and Bernd Franke (September 2017). Modul 6: Restriktionsarmes Szenario: Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland [Module 6: Restriction-poor scenario: Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany] (in German). Germany: Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, and ifeu.

Pfluger, Benjamin, Tobias Fleiter, Lukas Kranzl, Michael Hartner, Wolfgang Schade, Anna Hennecke, Horst Fehrenbach, Lars Brischke, Bernd Tersteegen, Frank Sensfuß, and Jan Steinbach (September 2017). Modul 10a: Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen Deutschlands um 95 % bis 2050: Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland [Module 10a: Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany by 95% in 2050: Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany] (in German). Germany: Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, and ifeu.

Bibliographic data

This text file bmwi-study-from-2017-bibdata.txt (20.8 KB) contains the associated references in BibTeX, Wikipedia WCF, markdown, and plain text formats.

 

Robbie Morrison, Berlin, Germany


Industrial energy efficiency , waste heat recovery and carbon capture and storage database
Do-a-thon: Collect data sources on industrial demand and strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in industry
Scenario representation
#2

Thanks for this summary, Robbie!


#3

…although scrolling through some files is disturbing: not a single reference e.g. on the power grid data. Quite far away from the scientific (gold) standard and motivating for open modelling :wink: